Further top signals in just 2 days since this post:
* Meta freezes new AI hires just one month after $1B onboarding offers to elite researchers. (There was one month between Facebook becoming Meta and the metaverse/GameFi pico-top in Oct/Nov 2021).
* Chamath SPAC quotes Trump "no crying in the casino."
* Kanye launches $TRUMP-like shitcoin (6 wallets control 90%).
I'm with Mercor right now as a side gig. Their client is Meta. They're on a wild hiring spree, paying between 21 and 30 an hour for fairly straightforward and simple tasks. I've got 4,000+ people in my Mercor Slack
Thanks for your thoughts here, it is useful. I basically agree on crypto, but I'm less clear on the AI trade timing. Some counters:
- Meta freezing hiring is essentially a restructuring, and makes sense given extreme underperformance on Llama by already existing staff (hire a new team, get rid of the old team, go from there)
- Fed cutting cycle likely(?) coming soon
- NVDA earnings next week will likely be strong
- Hyperscalers are deeply incentived to continue capex spend at least through the end of the year, and that much spend should buoy eg NVDA profits
-OAI currently in talks for a 500b round and Anthropic at 170b, revenues for core companies are still growing massively, GPT 5 was a disappointment from a pure capabilities standpoint but may be very profitable w eg low inference cost. It doesn't feel like Wile E Coyote moment to me yet
To be clear, I am pretty uncertain on net, and eg hawkish Jackson Hole/Sept Fed meeting could easily catalyze a pop. It does feel close to a cycle top, barring major advancements from the leading labs.
I withstood the COVID tech bubble, the Russian disaster. Had no plans to try to time the top of the market. Until this article. I hope and pray for a total crypto collapse now. #teambear
Further top signals in just 2 days since this post:
* Meta freezes new AI hires just one month after $1B onboarding offers to elite researchers. (There was one month between Facebook becoming Meta and the metaverse/GameFi pico-top in Oct/Nov 2021).
* Chamath SPAC quotes Trump "no crying in the casino."
* Kanye launches $TRUMP-like shitcoin (6 wallets control 90%).
* Grok pivoting to "companion outfits".
https://x.com/powerfultakes/status/1958483025358197217
I'm with Mercor right now as a side gig. Their client is Meta. They're on a wild hiring spree, paying between 21 and 30 an hour for fairly straightforward and simple tasks. I've got 4,000+ people in my Mercor Slack
Thanks for your thoughts here, it is useful. I basically agree on crypto, but I'm less clear on the AI trade timing. Some counters:
- Meta freezing hiring is essentially a restructuring, and makes sense given extreme underperformance on Llama by already existing staff (hire a new team, get rid of the old team, go from there)
- Fed cutting cycle likely(?) coming soon
- NVDA earnings next week will likely be strong
- Hyperscalers are deeply incentived to continue capex spend at least through the end of the year, and that much spend should buoy eg NVDA profits
-OAI currently in talks for a 500b round and Anthropic at 170b, revenues for core companies are still growing massively, GPT 5 was a disappointment from a pure capabilities standpoint but may be very profitable w eg low inference cost. It doesn't feel like Wile E Coyote moment to me yet
To be clear, I am pretty uncertain on net, and eg hawkish Jackson Hole/Sept Fed meeting could easily catalyze a pop. It does feel close to a cycle top, barring major advancements from the leading labs.
Will revist your lukewarm prediction that you are "reasonably sure" that $124k is the Bitcoin top in 6 month. See you then.
I withstood the COVID tech bubble, the Russian disaster. Had no plans to try to time the top of the market. Until this article. I hope and pray for a total crypto collapse now. #teambear
What's the use of Bitcoin? None. It's just fluff with no substance...